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Yavuz Selamun (Netherlands Agenda) Kriz ticareti mi, ticaret krizi mi etkiler?



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SELAMUN YAVUZ TRADE CRISIS OR CRISIS AFFECTS TRADEBaşbakan Yardımcısı ve Sosyal İşler Bakanı Lodewijk Asscher’ın uyum politikalarına ilişkin partileri PvdA ile görüş ayrılığına düşerek yollarını ayıran Tunahan Kuzu ve Selçuk Öztürk’ün PvdA Meclis grubundan ayrılması birkaç gün süreyle Hollanda Türk toplumunda sanki bir akıl tutulmasına yol açmıştı.

lasting a few days, leading to neighborhood pressures, We have seen once again that those who remain calm in the face of those who speak words that have nothing to do with reality and those who act with reason and logic are right.. PvdA council members, who announced that they had their resignation letters from the party in their pockets the day after the events took place, acted with their wisdom and logic without taking long.. As a result, Kuzu and Öztürk, Contrary to their expectations, no municipality or state council member was able to attract PvdA members of Turkish origin to their side.. This is Kuzu and Öztürk's total 33 It shows that even if they receive a thousand preferential votes, they have no influence on the politicians of Turkish origin in the party's management team..

If they enter a new political initiative, where and how will they find staff?? And do they have the political leadership qualities that can dominate those cadres?? Time will tell the answers to these questions.

silence of the lambs

Last week, the budget of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment was discussed in the House of Representatives.. The government's cohesion policies were also part of these budget negotiations. However, Kuzu and Öztürk, After the crossroads, they announced that they would not participate in these talks, claiming that they were not prepared enough because they were a small parliamentary group..

Minister Asscher's letter regarding cohesion policies 25 Eylül 2014 These MPs, who saw it in their e-mails on , are at odds with the PvdA Parliamentary group due to their reactions to this letter., And now it doesn't seem very convincing that they were not adequately prepared for this issue.. If they couldn't prepare for such an issue, why did they clash with parliamentary groups?? If they have researched the issue enough to contradict the parliamentary groups, Why did they choose to remain silent by not participating in the budget discussions of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment and did not come out and say a word or two in the House of Representatives about the government's cohesion policies??

Another diplomatic crisis

These events also caused a new political crisis between the Netherlands and Türkiye.. With the development of events, the matter was suddenly out of Minister Asscher's hands., was on the agenda of the new Minister of Foreign Affairs Koenders. First, the Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman accused the Netherlands of racism, Then, there was a meeting at the level of undersecretaries with members of the Turkish Embassy, ​​with harsh comments from Asscher and Koenders.. We were waiting for the situation to calm down when the two Foreign Ministers had a phone call right afterwards.. Another new statement came from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Turkey's desire to take part in the discussions regarding the integration policies of the Netherlands was announced by Minister Çavuşoğlu to the Dutch television channel NOS..

These mutual statements, It would be best to see them as moves in the diplomatic chess game.. It is understood from Çavuşoğlu's last statement that, Ankara wants to continue this diplomatic crisis. Netherlands 'Turkey's long hand' Turkey's desire to contribute to the harmonization policies here at a time when there are debates, Strongly rejected by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It is a matter of curiosity what Ankara's next move will be..

The chess moves made by these countries, both of which we have ties to in some way, with each other., It looks like it will continue until the general elections to be held in Turkey in the first half of next year..

business relations

This diplomatic crisis between the Netherlands and Türkiye is not the first, ne de son olacak. It is always said that the Netherlands cannot risk a diplomatic crisis with Türkiye due to its economic interests.. Is this really the case?, Let's evaluate this with the fixed numbers we have.:

 

 

Euro

Dutch foreign trade volume

X 1.000

Trade volume with Türkiye

X 1.000

Netherlands

imports

 

X 1.000

Export from Netherlands

 

X 1.000

Dutch trade share

 

%

Türkiye foreign trade volume

X 1.000

Türkiye trade share

 

%

2011 774.280 6.770 2 021 4 749 0,87 270.072 2,50
2012 819.166 6.759 2 087 4 672 0,82 302.731 2,32
2013 819.461 7.098 2 278 4 820 0,86 304.347 2,33

(*)

Let's make a few observations first.:

  • Total foreign trade volume of the Netherlands, that is, the sum of exports and imports, Turkey's foreign trade volume is approximately 3 solid more.
  • Trade between the Netherlands and Türkiye, Türkiye’nin toplam cari açığının yüzde % 3’ünü oluşturuyor.
  • Hollanda’nın Türkiye ile ticaretinden oluşan bir cari açığı yok; yılda 2,5 milyar euroluk bir artı girdisi var.
  • Hollanda-Türkiye arasındaki ekonomik hareketlilik, Hollanda dış ticaret hacminin ancak %0,86’sına denk geliyor.
  • Bu hareketlilik Türkiye’nin toplam ticaret hacminin % 2,33’ü civarında.

 

Yukarıdaki tablodaki verilere göre, 2011’den bu yana Hollanda ile Türkiye arasındaki ticaret hacminde olağanüstü bir değişiklik göze çarpmıyor; karşılıklı ihracat ve ithalat istikrarlı gözüküyor, But there has been no improvement in trade volume in the last three years..

Additionally, the diplomatic crisis that broke out between the two countries in 2013 does not seem to have affected international trade much.. Therefore, the expectation that this crisis will have an impact on the stable economic relationship between the two countries is not very realistic..

Therefore, diplomatic crises do not affect bilateral economic relations.. Both countries will not take into account the economic dimension of the incident while managing this diplomatic crisis from their own perspective..

Ancaak…

Commercial relations between the two countries are not limited to imports and exports. ING Bank, Unilever, Dutch companies such as Shell and Philips have significant investments and companies in Turkey. Ülker Group in Turkey also took its place in the Dutch domestic economy by purchasing the Verkade Gıda company in recent months..

In general, such diplomatic crises are considered temporary., Considering that mutual economic interests extend over the longer term, We can conclude that economic relations between the two countries will not have an impact on this diplomatic crisis..

We will see this more clearly in the coming days.

 

(*)Kaynak: CBS and TURKSTAT

 

Electronic mail: syavuz@kpnmail.nl
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Author admin | 6 December 2014


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